Confident Managers

Imagine the question is "Where is the stapler?"

Someone says "It might be on John's desk"

Someone else says "It is in the coffee room, I'm positive."

Who do you believe?

This works fine for staplers but confident managers are one of the most dangerous seductions of the business world.

When it comes to business strategy or tactics no well-informed person ever feels "I'm positive." They know there are many uncertainties. We ought to reach the common understanding that great confidence is a red flag.

There are many subtleties to this. You want your coach saying "I know you guys can win" even when the evidence is clearly against that prediction. However, the notion of a red flag remains valid. If someone is confident they know the truth on complex matters, you should begin to doubt them.

Doug passes on the quote:

"The view that truth is found and that ignorance and error are at an
end is one of the most potent seductions there is. Supposing it is
believed, then the will to examination, investigation, caution,
experiment is paralyzed: it can even count as criminal, namely as
doubt concerning truth--Truth is therefore more fateful than error and
ignorance, because it cuts off the forces that work toward
enlightenment and knowledge."(1888)

Can you identify the author?